ES Daily Plan | June 3, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Monday’s session formed an excess high, from which the auction pulled back into the close. This closing weakness extended into the overnight session, where sellers gained immediate traction within last week’s range. The inability to establish acceptance below 7585 (DT1) continued overnight. Sellers briefly breached 7585 before responsive buyers stepped in to trigger a rotation higher. 7585 was a potential LBAF level, which played out well. During the European session, sellers stepped in and defended last week’s high at 7611 (Smashlevel), a key reference to defend given Monday’s excess high.
Heading into the RTH session, we had a clearly defined distribution of interest (see Figure 1). Buyers needed to reclaim 7611, while sellers needed to break 7585. Buyers were ultimately able to gain traction above 7611 in the C-period after a shallow rejection in the B-period, forming single prints and triggering stops. This effectively negated any potential bearish scenario, which required holding within last week’s range. Monday’s excess was revisited in the D-period, where sellers stepped in. 7629 was a potential LBAF level, which also played out today. The auction established a distribution above last week’s high of 7611, with notable aggressive selling (see delta profile). It remains to be seen whether this will act as fuel for upside continuation. Today’s high came 1 tick shy of the ATH at 7632.25, making it a weak high.
Smashlevels Recap
Sellers needed to build acceptance back within last week’s range after Monday’s excess high, which they did overnight. However, the inability to sustain it during RTH led to a P-shaped profile, negating the excess. The current ATH is now weak, suggesting unfinished business.
The immediate level of interest to gauge directional conviction is today’s afternoon pullback low at 7615, closely aligned with last week’s high (7611).
Intraday strength would be indicated by value building above 7632 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7585 (DT1), i.e. traction back within Thursday’s range.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7615, the afternoon pullback low. Holding above 7615 signals stability and targets 7632 (UT1). Acceptance above 7632 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7661 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7680 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7615 would shift focus to 7585 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7562 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7615.
Holding above 7615 would target 7632 / 7661 / 7680
Break and hold below 7615 would target 7585 / 7562
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.78 and 14.78. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7680 with VIX below 14.78 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7562 with VIX above 16.78 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash! Sticking to executions around your levels has significantly improved my consistency.