ES Daily Plan | June 29, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Friday’s session was quite interesting as it produced conflicting market-generated information. The session opened on a true gap down, which was filled immediately, something stronger sellers wouldn’t have allowed. Value was unchanged relative to Thursday’s session, but closing weakness developed during the last 30 minutes, often referred to as the M-period.
Smashlevels Recap
As discussed in the Weekly Plan, Friday’s close was weak, but value remained largely unchanged relative to Thursday, making early-week value development important to monitor for directional clues.
We can essentially treat the low-volume area (LVA) below last week’s VAL as a spike. Trading within or below this LVA (acceptance) would be a bearish development, while rejecting Friday’s weakness by trading back above the LVA would open the door to a return to value.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7410, Friday’s halfback, aligning with last week’s VAL. Holding below 7410 maintains downside pressure, targeting Friday’s excess base at 7369 (DT1), with 7335 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7410 would shift focus to last week’s VPOC at 7444 (UT1), with 7472 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7410.
Break and hold above 7410 would target 7444 / 7472
Holding below 7410 would target 7360 / 7335
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.44 and 17.38. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7472 with VIX below 17.38 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7335 with VIX above 19.44 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you Smash!