ES Daily Plan | June 26, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Yesterday’s after-hours trading saw a notable bounce following Micron’s earnings, bringing price back within last week’s range. The key for buyers was to build acceptance above last week’s low at 7472 (Smashlevel), which they ultimately did a good job of during the European hours overnight. However, the RTH session told a different story.
Sellers immediately took control of 7472 in RTH, triggering a liquidation break. As was the case on Wednesday, responsive buyers stepped in on attempts to break the Weekly Extreme Low at 7405. A volatile Initial Balance transitioned into responsive, two-sided trade for the remainder of the session, similar to Tuesday’s structure. Buyers continue to struggle gaining traction within last week’s range, while sellers have failed to break the Weekly Extreme Low at 7405. Needless to say, acceptance outside the 7472–7405 range is required for directional resolution, a transition from balance to imbalance in auction terms.
Smashlevels Recap
The auction has established a 3-day balance area, with two-sided trade taking place. This is a short-term bearish consolidation until proven otherwise, in the context of Tuesday’s true gap lower, which remains unfilled.
Keep it simple: Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7472 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7405 (DT1). Any failure to establish acceptance outside this range presents a reversal opportunity, consistent with auction behavior in balance conditions.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7444, the 3-day balance midpoint and VPOC. Holding below 7444 opens the door to the Weekly Extreme Low at 7405 (DT1). Acceptance below 7405 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7380 (DT2), with 7354 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7444 would shift focus to last week’s low at 7472 (UT1), with 7508 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7444.
Break and hold above 7444 would target 7472 / 7508
Holding below 7444 would target 7405 / 7380 / 7354
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.92 and 17.88. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7508 with VIX below 17.88 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7354 with VIX above 19.92 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash. Have a great weekend!
Thanks Smash for all the work, it's impeccable!