ES Daily Plan | June 24, 2026

Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

ES Weekly Plan | June 22-26, 2026

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

A meaningful change in tone required acceptance outside Wednesday’s value area, either above the VAH or below the VAL, as discussed. Overnight, sellers gained downside traction after breaking and defending 7540 (DT1). Significant weakness followed, clearing all downside targets to 7491 (FDT) before reaching the weekly support area between 7435 and 7405.

The overnight weakness led the RTH session to open on a true gap down, 60 handles below 7491 (FDT). When RTH opens above FUT, or below FDT, I typically take a defensive approach, meaning I’m cautious about chasing price. The fact that the market also opened within weekly support added another reason to remain patient.

Regular readers know that a failure below the overnight low (ONL) is a solid fade setup when gapping lower, a sequence that often triggers an inventory correction. That setup ultimately played out today during A-period. It’s not necessarily something you have to trade, but at a minimum, it serves as a reason to avoid initiating shorts early in the session. What made it particularly interesting today was that, despite trading below FDT and with the VIX above its resistance level, the market opened within weekly support, an area that is generally tricky to short under any circumstance.

The failure below ONL triggered a notable short-covering rally, but it’s important to understand that this was an inventory correction until proven otherwise, which would require acceptance back into the prior day’s range. The B-period tagged 7491 (FDT) to the tick, where sellers stepped in. From a risk perspective, shorting at 7491 was clearly more favorable, especially with the VIX still holding above its resistance, compared to shorting into the hole at the open. Trading activity for the rest of the session remained contained within the Initial Balance range. The roll gap at 7435 has been filled and is now out of the way. It will be very important for buyers to defend the weekly support area, which we discussed the importance of in the Weekly Plan.

Smashlevels Recap

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Today’s session saw sellers attempting to meaningfully shift the tone following a sustained true gap down. The key in the short term is whether lower prices are accepted or rejected. Unchanged or lower value is a bearish development, while failure to do so opens the door to a gap fill.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7472 (UT1), last week’s low aligning with today’s VAH, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7429 (DT1), the top of today’s excess low.

Visual Representation

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Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7452.

• Break and hold above 7452 would target 7472 / 7491 / 7510

• Holding below 7452 would target 7429 / 7405 / 7380

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.46 and 18.52. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7510 with VIX below 18.52 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7380 with VIX above 20.46 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.