ES Daily Plan | June 24, 2024
As outlined in the weekly plan, the short-term focus remains on the F-period single prints from Monday's multi-distribution trend day.
For new followers: the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
During the previous week, I transitioned to the ESU24 (September) contract. I do not back-adjust my charts, which means the historical prices on my charts remain unchanged. Consequently, my charts may differ from those that undergo back-adjustment. This choice is based on personal preference, as there is no definitive right or wrong approach; both methods have their pros and cons. For short-term traders, the impact is minimal since we navigate the market day by day, and our intraday targets remain the same regardless of the chosen method.
On Friday, sellers created a lower high and lower low on the daily chart after buyers failed to sustain the upside gap on Thursday. As outlined in the weekly plan, the short-term focus remains on the F-period single prints from Monday's multi-distribution trend day. Buyers maintain control above, while acceptance below has potential for further weakness.
For tomorrow, the Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5546, representing Friday’s high, coinciding with Tuesday’s low. Break and hold above 5546, ending the daily one-time framing down, would target Thursday’s afternoon rally high at 5556. Acceptance above 5556 signals intraday bullish momentum, targeting the final upside target of 5570. Holding below 5546 would target the support area from 5525 to 5515, effectively filling the F-period single prints from Monday’s trend day. Acceptance below 5515 signals intraday bearish momentum, targeting the final downside target of 5497.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5546.
Break and hold above 5546 would target 5556 / 5570
Holding below 5546 would target 5525 / 5515 / 5497
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 13.76 and 12.62. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5570 with VIX below 12.62 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5497 with VIX above 13.76 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Be sure to check out the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights significant levels of interest to watch in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
A miserable fail at ONVAL also Last week VAL!
5546 to the tick. Elegant Smash.