ES Weekly Plan | June 24-28, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Market Structure
🟥 DAILY: OTFD | ENDS: 5545.75
🟩 WEEKLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5489.75
🟩 MONTHLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5036.25
Contextual Analysis
During the previous week, I transitioned to the ESU24 (September) contract. I do not back-adjust my charts, which means the historical prices on my charts remain unchanged. Consequently, my charts may differ from those that undergo back-adjustment. This choice is based on personal preference, as there is no definitive right or wrong approach; both methods have their pros and cons. For short-term traders, the impact is minimal since we navigate the market day by day, and our weekly targets remain the same regardless of the chosen method.
Last week kicked off with a multi-distribution trend day to the upside on Monday, forming five (!) sets of single prints. Tuesday's session saw consolidation at the upper end of Monday’s range as the market processed the previous day's move. On Thursday, the market continued its price discovery to the upside, printing a new all-time high of 5588 in the overnight session, just 7 handles shy of the Weekly Extreme High at 5595. The RTH session that followed failed to sustain the upside gap and eventually saw liquidation, partially filling Monday’s poor structure. Despite some weakness from Thursday through Friday, three of Monday’s five single prints remain unfilled, signaling weak sellers thus far.
For this week, our main focus will be on last week's multi-distribution trend day established on Monday, particularly its single prints in the F-period. Friday’s session partially filled this area, finding responsive buyers and forming an excess low. Early on, it will be crucial to monitor whether sellers can fully fill this set of single prints and establish acceptance below 5515, potentially indicating further weakness. Failure to do so would suggest that last week’s pullback was merely technical fills rather than the involvement of stronger sellers. Although Thursday’s session established an excess high, we carry forward the untested overnight ATH at 5588 as an upside target in the absence of weakness.
The weekly Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5546, representing Friday’s high, coinciding with Tuesday’s low. Break and hold above 5546, ending the daily one-time framing down, would target Thursday’s opening level at 5570. Acceptance above 5570 would then target the resistance area from 5600 to the Weekly Extreme High of 5630, where selling activity can be expected. We carry forward the overnight ATH at 5588, which remains untested in RTH.
Holding below 5546 would target Monday’s F-period breakout single prints at 5515. Break and hold below 5515, signaling weakness, would target the support area from 5470 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5440, where buying activity can be expected. Take note of the ESM24 roll gap slightly below at 5437.50.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 5546.
Break and hold above 5546 would target 5570 / 5600 / 5630* / 5655 / 5685
Holding below 5546 would target 5515 / 5470 / 5440* / 5410 / 5385
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Economic Calendar
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Nice 👍
Thank you as always!