ES Daily Plan | June 23, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Quick update: Early overnight weakness led to an inside-day breakdown, tagging the next level of interest at 7515 (DT2), where responsive buyers stepped in. The inside-day range was traversed heading into the RTH session.
Buyers initiated an inside-day breakout during the Initial Balance in RTH, but the attempt ultimately failed, triggering a rotation lower. The inside-day range was subsequently traversed once more before activity tapered off after the C-period. From the D-period onwards, the Smashlevel at 7558 capped the upside, while sellers were unable to gain meaningful traction below the important 7540 (DT1) level, forming a poor low in the process.
Smashlevels Recap
The context remains unchanged after today’s session, which closed within Thursday’s inside-day range. Early price action saw a Look Above and Fail, followed later by an inside-day breakdown that lacked meaningful downside traction, resulting in a poor low.
Note how the last two sessions have essentially traded within Wednesday’s value area. The auction requires acceptance outside of this area for a meaningful change in tone. Levels of interest remain largely unchanged.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7581 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7540 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7560, the Initial Balance low. Holding below 7560 opens the door to 7540 (DT1). Acceptance below 7540 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7515 (DT2), with 7491 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7560 would shift focus to 7581 (UT1), with 7613 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7560.
Break and hold above 7560 would target 7581 / 7613
Holding below 7560 would target 7540 / 7515 / 7491
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.12 and 16.46. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7613 with VIX below 16.46 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7491 with VIX above 18.12 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash!