ES Daily Plan | June 23, 2025
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | June 23-27, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Just a heads-up: Thursday’s shortened holiday session is excluded from the chart, as it’s treated as part of the overnight session.
Friday’s session opened within Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s value areas and tested the 6070–6080 resistance zone, where sellers were once again active. This was followed by the formation of a double distribution profile to the downside, with a set of single prints in the B-period and value developing cleanly lower.
With a wave of headlines over the weekend, staying nimble is essential—use key levels to gauge the strength or weakness of the auction. Failure to reclaim Friday’s upper distribution keeps sellers in short-term control.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6008—Friday’s value support. Holding above 6008 would target the resistance area between 6034 and 6042 (UT1). Acceptance above 6042 would signal strength, opening the door for a move into the resistance area between 6070 and 6080 (FUT).
On the flip side, failure to hold above 6008 would target 5979 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 5956, under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6008.
Holding above 6008 would target 6034 / 6042 / 6070 / 6080
Break and hold below 6008 would target 5979 / 5956
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 21.92 and 19.32. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6080 with VIX below 19.32 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5956 with VIX above 21.92 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Great plan! Thanks Smash...
Thank you very much!