ES Daily Plan | June 22, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Note: Friday’s holiday session has been removed from the chart, as it is treated as an overnight session. Thursday’s session rejected Wednesday’s closing weakness with a return within Wednesday’s value area, forming an inside day. The key question is whether buyers can follow through.
Smashlevels Recap
As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the immediate attention remains on Thursday’s inside day for early directional clues.
Balance guidelines apply: go with a break of the inside day and monitor for continuation (acceptance) or lack thereof (rejection). Failure to follow through after a breakout attempt (LAAF/LBAF) opens the door for a rotation back toward Thursday’s VPOC.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7581 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7540 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7558, Thursday’s halfback. Holding above 7558 signals stability and opens the door to 7581 (UT1). Acceptance above 7581, confirming a successful inside-day breakout, would target the HVN at 7613 (UT2), with 7632 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7558 would shift focus to 7540 (DT1). Acceptance below 7540, confirming a successful inside-day breakdown, would target 7515 (DT2), with 7491 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7558.
Holding above 7558 would target 7581 / 7613 / 7632
Break and hold below 7558 would target 7540 / 7515 / 7491
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.18 and 15.62. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7632 with VIX below 15.62 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7491 with VIX above 17.18 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash!