ES Daily Plan | June 19-20, 2025
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | June 16-20, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Quick update today before we all enjoy the day off tomorrow. Sellers attempted to explore lower prices early in the overnight session—following Tuesday’s double distribution trend day—but were quickly rejected, triggering short-covering. During the European session, buyers attempted to gain acceptance within Tuesday’s upper distribution, but the attempt ultimately failed, leading to a return within Tuesday’s lower distribution ahead of the RTH open.
In the RTH session, the market established an above-average initial balance range of 38 handles, testing the highlighted resistance area between 6070 and 6080, where sellers were waiting (HOD: 6073.75). Similar to yesterday, the initial balance extension failed, trapping aggressive buyers and leading to a reversal (see Figure 1). The early strength was almost completely retraced ahead of the FOMC meeting. As always on FOMC days, it's generally wise to be flat 30 minutes before the event, conserve mental capital for the rest of the week, and let other traders handle the price discovery. Buyers successfully defended the Smashlevel at 6032 during the closing session (LOD: 6026.25).
Today’s initial push higher was rejected at the highlighted 6070–6080 resistance area, ultimately resulting in a close within Tuesday’s lower distribution—a sign of weakness in the context of Tuesday’s trend day. This week has developed a b-shaped profile, and the key question now is whether sellers can follow through to the downside.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6050—today’s halfback and TPOC. Holding below 6050 would target 6028 (DT1) and 6007 (DT2), with a final downside target (FDT) at 5979, under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6050 would target the resistance area between 6070 and 6080 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6103 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6050.
Break and hold above 6050 would target 6070 / 6080 / 6103
Holding below 6050 would target 6028 / 6007 / 5979
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 21.44 and 18.82. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6103 with VIX below 18.82 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5979 with VIX above 21.44 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you as always!
Thank you very much!