ES Daily Plan | June 16, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contract Rollover
A quick reminder: I’ve switched to the ESU26 (September) contract. For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. I recommend marking 7435 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.
Contract rollovers can be confusing. While some traders back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, which leaves a visible roll gap. This is purely a matter of personal preference, neither approach is inherently superior; both have pros and cons.
For short-term traders, the impact is usually minimal since we navigate the market day by day. During rollover periods, I typically scale back activity because order flow becomes noticeably less reliable.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
A peace deal hit the news feed ahead of the overnight session, triggering a significant move higher. The auction opened above the prior ATH at 7540, our final upside target (FUT), and continued to auction higher from there. A distribution was established around 7595 ahead of the RTH open, an area of prior balance (HVN). When RTH opens above FUT or below FDT, I take a more defensive approach and avoid chasing. This does not mean fading the move. Ideally, RTH would have offered an inventory correction, a pullback to potentially join the move, but even that would have been difficult given the significant overnight extension.
The RTH session showed no interest in an inventory correction, making the session difficult to trade outside of pure scalps. These conditions are challenging because chasing carries the risk of running into a liquidation break at any time, while shorting remains off the table. The next level of interest was the non-back-adjusted ATH at 7632, aligning with the Weekly Extreme High at 7635, already tagged in the D-period. Tagging 7635 this early makes the rest of the week tricky. Acceptance above it, implying value building above the prior ATH, is contextually not favorable for fading, while failure to do so would open the door for a pullback that could be sizable without necessarily being meaningfully bearish. Mind you step for the rest of the week.
Smashlevels Recap
Significant move higher today, following peace deal headlines. In the process, the non-back-adjusted ATH at 7632 was tagged, where upside momentum stalled. Value development relative to this reference and today’s value area will be key in the short term.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7649 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7611 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7635-32. Holding below 7632 would target 7611 (DT1). Acceptance below 7611 would signal intraday weakness, targeting the HVN at 7595 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7574 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7635 would shift focus to today’s poor high at 7649 (UT1). Acceptance above 7649 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7670 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7694 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7635-32.
Break and hold above 7635 would target 7649 / 7670 / 7694
Holding below 7632 would target 7611 / 7595 / 7574
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.06 and 15.34. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7694 with VIX below 15.34 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7574 with VIX above 17.06 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash. Good cautionary analysis and explanation, much appreciated.
Thanks Smash! Looks like a week to take a step back.