ES Daily Plan | June 16, 2025
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | June 16-20, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contract Rollover
As mentioned in the Weekly Plan, starting tomorrow, I will transition to the ESU25 (September) contract. For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. On the chart, I've marked the settlements from Friday's session for both ESM25 (June) at 5979.25 and ESU25 (September) at 6031.50, reflecting a +52.25 point difference. I recommend marking 5979.25 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.
Contract rollovers can be confusing. While some traders choose to back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, which results in a visible roll gap. This is a matter of personal preference—neither approach is inherently better, as both have pros and cons. For short-term traders, the impact is generally minimal, since we navigate the market day by day. I typically scale back activity during rollover periods, as order flow tends to become noticeably less reliable.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
A brief recap of Friday’s session was published on Substack (link), highlighting how the VIX levels in each plan can provide valuable context.
With key events this week—FOMC, VIXperation, and quarterly OPEX—alongside the complexities of contract rollover, bold market predictions are best avoided in favor of a steady, day-by-day approach.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6040. Holding below 6040 would target 6017 (DT1) and 6000 (DT2), with a final downside target (FDT) at 5979.25—the ESM25 roll gap—under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6040 would target Wednesday’s afternoon rally high at 6058 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6082—the G-period single prints from 2/21—under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6040.
Break and hold above 6040 would target 6058 / 6082
Holding below 6040 would target 6017 / 6000 / 5979
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 22.14 and 19.48. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6082 with VIX below 19.48 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5979 with VIX above 22.14 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Adjusted levels for traders still on the ESM25 contract:
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 5988.
Break and hold above 5988 would target 6006 / 6030
Holding below 5988 would target 5965 / 5948 / 5927
Thank you
Thank you very much!