ES Daily Plan | June 11, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Sellers maintained downside pressure overnight following an early period of consolidation around last week’s low at 7380 (Smashlevel). The final downside target at 7308 (FDT) was already tagged overnight, triggering a reversal ahead of the RTH open. The VIX breached its resistance level at 20.90 a couple of hours prior to tagging 7308. For newer readers: typically, with the VIX above resistance, I expect sellers to be active on bounces. The FDT (7308) can act as a downside magnet in an elevated VIX environment. Reversals off FDT can occur, as shorting directly into it is typically not an ideal location to initiate shorts. When FDT is breached with VIX still above resistance, I become cautious about seeking reversals.
In the RTH session, buyers attempted to reclaim 7380 during the initial balance after holding above 7354 (DT1), with the VIX dropping below its resistance. The C-period decisively rejected this attempt, while the VIX once again breached 20.90. Sellers then effectively controlled the auction, selling every bounce. Notably, 7308 provided multiple responsive reactions; however, into the closing weakness, it was ultimately taken out, tagging the top of Tuesday’s excess at 7275 in the process. 7275 is the Monthly Extreme Low, which I somehow overlooked, mainly because it typically doesn’t get hit this early in the month. This means the auction is currently emotional, which has been reflected by the price action, so stay sharp.
Smashlevels Recap
Sellers are currently controlling the auction in the short-term, with both the daily and weekly timeframes in one-time framing down. Continued downside pressure is expected as long as buyers are unable to reclaim the prior 4-week balance low at 7354. Note that last month’s VAL at 7337 is another key reference buyers need to reclaim
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7300 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7250 (DT1), the 5% correction level off ATH. PPI on deck tomorrow.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7275, Tuesday’s excess base, aligning with the Monthly Extreme Low. Holding below 7275 maintains downside pressure, targeting 7250 (DT1). Acceptance below 7250 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7230 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7200 (FDT), the Weekly Extreme Low, under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7275 would shift focus to 7300 (UT1). Acceptance above 7300 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7335 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7354 (FUT), the 4-week balance low, under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7275.
Break and hold above 7275 would target 7300 / 7335 / 7354
Holding below 7275 would target 7250 / 7230 / 7200
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 23.46 and 20.98. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7354 with VIX below 20.98 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7200 with VIX above 23.46 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
As always thank you
Thanks Smash!