ES Daily Plan | June 11, 2025
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | June 9-13, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Both the overnight and RTH sessions experienced wild swings. The initial upside target at 6034 (UT1) was tagged overnight following an impulsive spike higher, but the move was completely retraced a couple of hours later. As discussed, for the bullish tone to shift, sellers needed to break the 6000 level, which they attempted twice; however, both attempts encountered responsive buyers quickly. Reminder: breaking 6000 overnight did not end the daily one-time framing up, as this needs to occur during the RTH session. The failure to hold below 6000 eventually led to a return to the Smashlevel at 6022.
One interesting observation during the RTH session was that the market closed below 6022 for only one 30-minute period—in the A-period—despite two liquidation breaks. Buyers have been active on the dips, highlighting the power of trading in the direction of the prevailing trend. The first liquidation break occurred during the E-period, a 30-minute bar that featured a significant buying tail. The second liquidation break happened in the afternoon session when the market failed to hold above 6034, similar to the behavior seen in the overnight session. As mentioned, both liquidation breaks found responsive buyers, and we ultimately tagged the final upside target at 6050 (FUT) in the L-period (6049.50), which capped today’s upside. The 6050 level aligned perfectly with the 200% initial balance extension (6049.50), making it a good level to book profits. Additionally, the VIX held well above its support level of 16.26, making further upside difficult to expect.
Today’s session continued the upward grind, with responsive buyers stepping in at every liquidation break. The final upside target was 6050, with the L-period printing HOD at 6049.50. The session closed back within the multi-distribution trend day from February 21st—shown on the chart—and the next objective is to clean up that poor structure. Only acceptance below 6000 and the crucial 5988 level has the potential to shift the tone. CPI on deck tomorrow!
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6034. Holding above 6034 would target the H-period single prints from 2/21 at 6066 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6082—the G-period single prints from 2/21—under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold above 6034 would target the afternoon pullback low at 6016 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6000, under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6034.
Holding above 6034 would target 6066 / 6082
Break and hold below 6034 would target 6016 / 6000
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.80 and 16.10. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6082 with VIX below 16.10 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6000 with VIX above 17.80 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Appreciate you my friend! Love reading your thoughts!
Thank you as always!