ES Daily Plan | June 10, 2026

Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

ES Weekly Plan | June 8-12, 2026

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Another wild session in the books. In contrast to the RTH session, the overnight trade was rather mechanical, with a textbook Look Below and Fail (LBAF) setup developing at 7395 (Smashlevel) (see Figure 1). 7395 was revisited a few hours later, once again attracting responsive buyers. Sellers were unable to defend Monday’s Initial Balance Low at 7429 (UT1), which triggered a move toward the next level of interest at 7457 (UT2), where sellers were active ahead of the RTH open.

Figure 1

The price action in the RTH session was highly emotional. The A-period was marked by notable aggressive buying, with buyers holding the retest of 7457 after breaking above it (see Figure 2). In the process, the final upside target at 7478 (FUT) was tagged and exceeded. Buyers ultimately initiated an inside-day breakout, with the VIX breaking below its support level at 17.82. From there, the key focus shifted to whether buyers could hold above 7478; sustained acceptance above it would open the door to a trend day to the upside, unfavorable for fading, while failure to do so would signal emerging weakness.

Figure 2

The breakout attempt resulted in a vicious bull trap, which became the launching point for a sharp emotional drop of 200+ handles. The gap at 7299.75 was filled in the process, and the auction extended to tag 7250, the 5% correction level off the ATH, before buyers stepped in. A V-shaped reversal then saw price return to the Smashlevel at 7395, where sellers stepped in during the L- and M-periods.

Smashlevels Recap

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An early failed inside-day breakout led to a highly emotional session today. In the process, the auction filled the gap at 7299.75 and completed a 5% correction off the all-time high (7250).

Notably, the session closed back above both the 4-week balance low (7354) and last week’s low (7380), levels that buyers now need to defend, opening the door for a clean-up of today’s structure and a potential traverse of the large distribution. Failure to do so would keep downside pressure in play.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7415 (UT1), today’s Initial Balance Low, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7354 (DT1), the 4-week balance low. CPI on deck tomorrow.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7380, last week’s low. Holding above 7380 signals stability and targets 7415 (UT1). Acceptance above 7415 would signal intraday strength, targeting a structure clean-up toward 7455 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7478 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.

On the flip side, failure to hold 7380 would shift focus to the 4-week balance low at 7354 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7308 (FDT), where today’s intraday one-time framing ended, under sustained selling pressure.

Visual Representation

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Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7380.

• Holding above 7380 would target 7415 / 7455 / 7478

• Break and hold below 7380 would target 7354 / 7308

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.90 and 18.84. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7478 with VIX below 18.84 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7308 with VIX above 20.90 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.