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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Reminder: markets don’t become “overbought” or “oversold.” I would avoid using those terms. It’s all about whether prices are accepted or rejected. As long as higher prices are being accepted, the market can continue to move higher. Friday’s session shifted the short-term value (5D VPOC) from 7536 to 7596, value continues to follow price.
Smashlevels Recap
On Thursday, buyers initiated a breakout from the 2-day balance, forming a double distribution trend day and closing the session at the highs. The profile was P-shaped, and this bullish imbalance was resolved by Friday’s continuation higher, which established value cleanly higher.
Keep it simple: there are two notable high volume nodes from last week, highlighted on the chart. Rejecting the upper HVN by gaining acceptance back inside Thursday’s range would open the door to structural fills toward the lower HVN. Failure to do so keeps buyers firmly in control.
Intraday strength would be indicated by building value above 7610 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7562 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7585, the low volume node (LVN). Holding above 7585 signals stability and targets 7610 (UT1). Acceptance above 7610 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7633 (UT2), with a final upside target at 7661 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7585 would shift focus to 7562 (DT1), with a final downside target at 7537 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7585.
Holding above 7585 would target 7610 / 7633 / 7661
Break and hold below 7585 would target 7562 / 7537
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.18 and 14.48. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7661 with VIX below 14.48 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7537 with VIX above 16.18 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you Smash!
Thanks Smash!