ES Daily Plan | July 9, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The overnight session kicked off with a test of 7534 (DT1), where responsive buyers emerged. Order flow showed signs of seller exhaustion into 7534, after which aggressive buyers stepped in and triggered a 30-handle reversal to test 7556 (Smashlevel) (see Figure 1).
However, failure to gain acceptance above 7556 led to a rotation back to 7534 heading into the European session. Shortly after the European open, a news-driven liquidation break unfolded, with price tagging and ultimately exceeding the Final Downside Target at 7497 (FDT) (see Figure 2). VIX spiked higher, breaking its resistance level at 16.94, a level that later proved pivotal during RTH. The poor structure from the drop got fills ahead of the open, with buyers reclaiming 7497, but VIX remained elevated.
The overnight weakness led the RTH session to open on a true gap down, and buyers initially controlled the opening level. However, they were unable to complete the gap fill, which would have required a tag of Tuesday’s RTH low, while VIX slowly approached its broken resistance at 16.94. Change took place in the C-period, as sellers extended the Initial Balance to the downside. The overnight lows were revisited, from which a V-shaped reversal developed, ultimately leading to a return to the 7534 level, which proved pivotal today. The gap was filled in the process.
Session Recap
Sellers completed a full traverse of last week’s value area following the news-driven overnight weakness. However, acceptance below last week’s VAL at 7497 was lacking, and the true gap down was filled after a poor low formed, something stronger sellers likely would not have allowed. The auction currently lacks directional conviction, so remaining nimble is important.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7534 (UT1), today’s VAH, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below last week’s VAL at 7497 (DT1), opening the door for a directional move away from value.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7515, the afternoon support (see Figure 3). Holding above 7515 targets 7534 (UT1). Acceptance above 7534 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7556 (UT2), with 7578 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, a failure to hold 7515 shifts focus to last week’s VAL at 7497 (DT1), with 7470 (FDT), today’s poor low, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7515.
Holding above 7515 would target 7534 / 7556 / 7578
Break and hold below 7515 would target 7497 / 7470
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.70 and 16.10. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7578 with VIX below 16.10 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7470 with VIX above 17.70 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank Smash! Always high-quality stuff!