ES Daily Plan | July 9, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | July 7-11, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Today’s uneventful session offered little in terms of new analysis. The overnight session tested 6160 (DT1) early, where buyers responded. This was followed by a slow grind higher that ultimately tagged and exceeded 6276—our pivot for the session. A distribution formed above 6276, which was not an ideal development for sellers after opening the door for potential weakness on Monday.
The RTH session turned out to be a non-event, trading entirely within the overnight range and Monday’s value area. Given the lack of meaningful activity, there isn’t much to dissect. Instead, I’ll highlight a short-term trade opportunity that developed during the D-period, when the market tested the 6276 level (see Figure 1). Aggressive buyers were absorbed by passive sellers, after which aggressive sellers stepped in and triggered a reversal. It ultimately played out as a quick, short-term trade. Order flow plays a crucial role in all market environments, but it truly shines when the market is chopping within a tight, rotational range—offering precision and clarity for short-term scalping.
Monday’s session ended the daily one-time framing up after breaking the previous session’s low, bringing the market back to balance. Today’s session confirmed this balanced state by establishing an inside day, further tightening the balance.
There is less appeal in being active within today’s range, where a short-term high volume node has formed. The optimal approach is to follow balance guidelines: trade the break of the balance—in this case, the inside day—while monitoring for continuation (acceptance) or lack thereof (rejection). A lack of continuation after a breakout attempt can trigger a move back to the HVN at 6271.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6263—today’s low. Holding above 6263 would target 6284 (UT1). Acceptance above 6284 would signal strength, targeting 6310 (UT2), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6333 under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold above 6263 would target the support area between 6245 and 6239 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6214 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6263.
Holding above 6263 would target 6284 / 6310 / 6333
Break and hold below 6263 would target 6245-39 / 6214
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.72 and 15.88. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6333 with VIX below 15.88 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6214 with VIX above 17.72 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash! Love these breakdowns!
Thank you very much!