ES Daily Plan | July 8, 2026

Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

ES Weekly Plan | July 6-10, 2026

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

Monday’s balance breakout attempt was immediately negated overnight, as price rotated lower and retraced nearly the entire Monday session after failing to attract responsive buyers at 7578 (Smashlevel). The auction then rotated around 7578 heading into the RTH session.

Sellers immediately gained control of the 7578 level during the RTH session, triggering logical weakness as trapped inventory from Monday came under pressure. When an auction attempts to break out of balance and fails, it often returns to value. That is precisely what occurred during the weakness that followed. Note how both the 5D and 20D VPOCs, representing short-term and medium-term value, have converged within today’s range.

Downside momentum stalled at the final downside target at 7534 (FDT), a good area to book profits on shorts rather than initiate new short positions. The VIX was hovering around its resistance level at the time as well.

The D-period printed an inside bar, and the E-period looked below that structure and failed, testing 7534 in the process and triggering a squeeze higher. The bounce was then absorbed by passive sellers, with the inability to continue higher leading to closing liquidation (see Figure 1).

Figure 1

Session Recap

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The auction was not ready to transition from balance into imbalance, resulting in a rotation back to value during today’s session. A 5-day balance has now developed as the market awaits additional market-generated information.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7578 (UT1), last week’s VAH, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7534 (DT1), opening the door to complete a traverse of last week’s value area.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7556, the M-period high. Holding below 7556 targets 7534 (DT1), with 7497 (FDT), last week’s VAL, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7556 shifts focus to last week’s VAH at 7578 (UT1), with 7605 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

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Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7556.

• Break and hold above 7556 would target 7578 / 7605

• Holding below 7556 would target 7534 / 7497

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.94 and 15.34. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7605 with VIX below 15.34 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7497 with VIX above 16.94 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.