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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | July 7-11, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Almost the entire overnight session traded within Thursday’s A-period range, with the initial upside target at 6310 (UT1) capping the upside. This level proved to be significant throughout the entire session.
The RTH session continued with responsive, two-sided activity within Thursday’s A-period range during the initial balance, as 6310 continued to cap the upside, keeping Thursday’s inventory trapped. It’s worth noting that the VIX held above its resistance level at 17.22 throughout today’s session, offering a clue to remain somewhat cautious when buying potential weakness. Given the elevated VIX, was 6310 (intraday bullish if above) a reasonable level to look for selling activity? Change took place in the C-period, when sellers extended the initial balance to the downside, forming single prints that the D-period failed to fully fill—another clue of weakness. During the F-period, Thursday’s true gap at 6276.50 was filled, and the market ultimately returned to the high volume node at 6245, highlighted as a downside magnet during potential weakness.
A notable nuance today was that the market failed to tag last week’s VPOC at 6245, instead forming a poor low slightly above at 6246.25. The key question now is whether today’s weakness was driven by stronger sellers or if it was merely an inventory correction following a significant rally with minimal pullbacks. One would think that if stronger sellers were involved, the market would not have stopped just 5 ticks above such a visible reference. Focusing on the composite profile on the far right, the outlook is fairly straightforward: a market that continues to hold below 6276 has potential for further weakness, as we’ve already discussed. Acceptance back above 6276 would be a sign of very weak sellers. Keep in mind: buyers are not in trouble in the bigger picture as long as they hold the retest of the prior ATH at 6166.50, as discussed in the Weekly Plan.
Sellers ultimately built on Friday’s weakness, defending the initial upside target at 6310 and keeping Thursday’s inventory trapped. In the process, Thursday’s gap was filled, and the market revisited the high volume node at 6245 (magnet on weakness).
As discussed, a return within Wednesday’s range could introduce weakness, and the key for sellers now is to maintain downside pressure by continuing to hold below 6276. Failure to do so would be a sign of weak sellers.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6276—Wednesday’s high. Holding below 6276 would target 6260 (UT1) and the support area between 6245 and 6239 (UT2), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6214 under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6278 would target 6310 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6333 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6276.
Break and hold above 6276 would target 6310 / 6333
Holding below 6276 would target 6260 / 6245-39 / 6214
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.70 and 16.88. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6333 with VIX below 16.88 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6214 with VIX above 18.70 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash! Let the pullback begin!
Thank you very much!