ES Daily Plan | July 7, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The overnight session opened within Thursday’s Initial Balance range, suggesting that many traders from Thursday’s value area were trapped. If you recall, we already noted after Thursday’s session that despite the weakness, stronger sellers were absent. Why? Because stronger sellers would likely have been able to gain traction within the prior multi-day balance area. Instead, a poor low formed, suggesting that Thursday’s weakness was primarily driven by weak-handed longs. The auction’s ability to build value above last week’s VPOC at 7556 (UT1) was a clue that confirmed the absence of stronger sellers today.
Buyers defended 7556 (UT1) early in RTH, built value above it, and completed a move to 7587 (FUT) by the D-period (see Figure 1). The 7587 level was unfavorable to chase, as we do not chase the final intraday upside target, and VIX holding above its support level at 15.32 was another factor arguing against chasing. Upside momentum stalled noticeably after tagging 7587, with price going nowhere for several periods. There was significant aggressive selling activity during this period of consolidation, but no downside traction developed. A quick pop failed, resulting in a shallow pullback that buyers quickly absorbed. Thursday’s poor high was cleaned up in the process.
Smashlevels Recap
Thursday’s long liquidation, which was not driven by stronger sellers as suspected, ultimately served as fuel for upside continuation today. Buyers defended last week’s VPOC at 7556, effectively cleaning up Thursday’s poor high in the process.
Buyers are currently attempting to break out of the 3-day balance area. The immediate level of interest for gauging directional conviction is today’s Afternoon Pullback Low (APBL) at 7678, which aligns closely with last week’s VAH.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7605 (UT1), the 100% IB extension, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below last week’s VPOC at 7556 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7578, the Afternoon Pullback Low (APBL). Holding above 7578 signals stability and targets 7605 (UT1). Acceptance above 7605 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7632 (UT2), with 7648 (FUT), the non-back-adjusted ATH, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7578 shifts focus to last week’s VPOC at 7556 (DT1), with 7534 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7578.
Break and hold above 7578 would target 7605 / 7632 / 7648
Holding below 7578 would target 7556 / 7534
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.38 and 14.74. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7648 with VIX below 14.74 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7534 with VIX above 16.38 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash! Much appreciated!
Thanks! The 7578 is the IBH I think!