ES Daily Plan | July 7, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | July 7-11, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
On Thursday’s shortened session, the market opened with a true gap up, followed by immediate upside continuation—breaking away from the balance area established earlier in the week. However, this move was retraced during Friday’s holiday session.
As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the key early focus will be on whether sellers can build on Friday’s weakness and find acceptance back within Wednesday’s range—trapping Thursday’s inventory—which could introduce short-term weakness. Failure to do so would remove the potential for change, keeping buyers in firm control.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6276—the unfilled daily gap. Holding above 6276 signals strength, targeting 6310 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6333 under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold above 6276 would target 6260 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at the support area between 6245 and 6239 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6276.
Holding above 6276 would target 6310 / 6333
Break and hold below 6276 would target 6260 / 6245 / 6239
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.22 and 15.54. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6333 with VIX below 15.54 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6239 with VIX above 17.22 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you!
Thank you very much!