ES Daily Plan | July 6, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Note: Friday’s holiday session has been removed from the chart, as it is treated as an overnight session. Thursday’s session was marked by early strength that resulted in a poor high, in confluence with VIX tagging its support level at 15.82, followed by a reversal and subsequent weakness. Responsive buyers stepped in at the upper end of the prior multi-day balance, suggesting that despite a weak session, stronger sellers were absent.
Smashlevels Recap
As discussed in the Weekly Plan, a 3-day balance has developed following Tuesday’s breakout, which remains a bullish consolidation until proven otherwise.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7556 (UT1), last week’s VPOC, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below last week’s VAL at 7497 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7534, Thursday’s M-period high. Holding below 7534 targets last week’s VAL at 7497 (DT1), with 7472 (FDT), the afternoon pullback low from Monday, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, a reclaim and hold above 7534 shifts focus to last week’s VPOC at 7556 (UT1), with 7587 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7534.
Break and hold above 7534 would target 7556 / 7587
Holding below 7534 would target 7497 / 7472
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.02 and 15.32. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7587 with VIX below 15.32 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7472 with VIX above 17.02 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash!