ES Daily Plan | July 30, 2026

Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead

— For new subscribers

The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.

This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.

Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.

ES Weekly Plan | July 27-31, 2026

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Contextual Analysis & Plan

The overnight session was fairly balanced, with the value area (70% of traded volume) developing between 7456 (Smashlevel) and 7485 (UT1 & Weekly Pivot). Sellers attempted to gain traction within Tuesday’s lower distribution early on, but the attempt failed, triggering a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) at 7456 (see Figure 1). Any attempts to deviate from the 7456–7485 range were met with responsive buying or selling, keeping the auction in balance.

Figure 1

The RTH session opened within Tuesday’s single-print area, tested the upper distribution of Tuesday’s profile, and sold off. The auction was notably weak ahead of the FOMC meeting, clearing all downside targets toward 7403 (FDT) and effectively attempting a breakdown from the 4-day balance area. I’m typically not interested in directional moves ahead of big events. The F-period formed an excess low, triggering a counter-auction ahead of FOMC. The market showed its typical volatility during the FOMC meeting, where I prefer to take a step back and let other traders handle the price discovery process. Price action became highly volatile, with a retest of the 7485 level followed by a rather nasty L- and M-period. In the process, the F-period excess was negated, and the session closed with a downward spike (highlighted on the chart), now of short-term interest.

Session Recap

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The multi-day balance area that developed below last week’s gap was a bearish consolidation until proven otherwise, and today’s session confirmed that view with a breakdown.

The key in the short term will be to monitor for continuation or lack thereof. A weak market will reject attempts to reclaim 7371 and 7398, keeping the imbalance intact and opening the door to a revisit of the multi-week balance lows in the 7250s.

Failure to do so would make a return to the high volume node at 7447 (value) the most reasonable outcome, representing the fairest prices to do business over the last couple of sessions.

Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7398 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7335 (DT1).

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7371, the base of the M-period spike. Holding below 7371 maintains downside pressure and targets 7335 (DT1). Acceptance below 7335 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7298 (DT2), with 7275 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.

On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7371 shifts focus to 7398 (UT1), with 7426 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.

Visual Representation

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Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7371.

• Break and hold above 7371 would target 7398 / 7426

• Holding below 7371 would target 7335 / 7298 / 7275

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 21.76 and 19.56 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

• Break and hold above 7426 with VIX below 19.56 would confirm strength.

• Break and hold below 7275 with VIX above 21.76 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.