ES Daily Plan | July 30, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | July 28 - August 1, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Monday’s closing squeeze in the M-period was followed by an upside continuation during the overnight session. As a result, the market once again explored prices above last week’s high at 6431. In contrast to the prior session, the overnight strength led to a smaller true gap up at the RTH open.
As always, when the RTH session opens on a true gap up—meaning completely outside of the prior day’s range and signaling a shift in tone from the previous session—the key is to monitor whether that shift is accepted or rejected. Note how Friday’s and Monday’s value areas are essentially unchanged, so today’s session would either establish new value at higher prices or fail to do so and return within prior value—making the UT1 at 6431 an important reference point. The market immediately returned within Monday’s range during the A-period, and a battle around 6431 was observed during the initial balance.
Change took place in the C-period, when sellers extended the initial balance to the downside. As always, the most bearish outcome when gapping higher is acceptance within the prior day’s range, which can trigger a full traverse of that range. This was already achieved by the D-period, as sellers put an end to the daily one-time framing up, bringing the daily back to balance. In the process, the Smashlevel at 6416 was breached and later attracted selling activity during the afternoon session, as an afternoon high formed at 6418.
Today’s outside day to the downside resulted in a double distribution profile, with a set of single prints established in the C-period. The market is currently in a 4-day balance heading into tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. The upper extreme is marked by excess—though we carry forward an untested overnight ATH at 6457.75—while the lower extreme is considered poor/weak. A breakdown from balance would target technical fills toward 6374 and 6353, while failure to gain traction below the weak balance low would negate the potential for change—keeping buyers firmly in control.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6394—a low volume node (LVN). Holding above 6394 would target the afternoon rally high at 6418 (UT1). Acceptance above 6418 would signal strength, targeting last week’s high at 6431 (UT2), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6450 under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 6394 would target 6374 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6353 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6394.
Holding above 6394 would target 6418 / 6431 / 6450
Break and hold below 6394 would target 6374 / 6353
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.82 and 15.14. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6450 with VIX below 15.14 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6353 with VIX above 16.82 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you as always!
Thank you!