ES Daily Plan | July 29, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: the yellow levels highlighted at the bottom are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Friday’s session formed an inside day, with its price range contained within the previous day’s range. Although the daily chart technically maintains its one-time framing down, the inside day suggests a state of short-term balance, indicating that the market is awaiting additional market-generated information to guide its next move. Upcoming potential catalysts include FOMC on Wednesday and the NFP report on Friday.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5511, marking a low volume node. Holding below this level would target 5474, aligning with the MA50, with a final target at 5455 under sustained selling pressure. Failure to hold below 5511 would target the high volume node at 5530, and fills of Wednesday’s excess high toward 5549.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5511.
Break and hold above 5511 would target 5530 / 5549
Holding below 5511 would target 5474 / 5455
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.24 and 15.54. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5549 with VIX below 15.54 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5455 with VIX above 17.24 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Hello , thanks for the analysis. May I ask you how you find the 5511 level ? And what is MA 50 ?