ES Daily Plan | July 28, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The overnight session kicked off with an open above 7485 (UT1), leaving Thursday’s and Friday’s inventory in a tricky position. Buyers then defended 7485 (intraday bullish), leading to a move toward 7525 (FUT) during the Euro session. As discussed in the Weekly Plan, acceptance above 7525 is required to meaningfully shift the tone. As the auction approached 7525, VIX was testing its support level at 17.52 (LOD 17.53), making it a poor location for initiating new longs and an area where sellers could potentially respond. Whenever FUT or FDT is reached, one should immediately ask, regardless of VIX: Is this a good location to chase?
Sellers did step in ahead of RTH, triggering a reversal that gained momentum once the RTH session opened. Responsive sellers within the gap area triggered a quick return to the area where value was built on Thursday and Friday. The liquidation break stalled at 7426 (DT1), and sellers were unable to gain meaningful traction below, providing multiple Look Below and Fail (LBAF) setups. Remember, aggressive sellers were trapped in that area on Thursday and may have seen their opportunity to exit once the level was revisited.
The auction established a well-defined distribution between 7458 (Smashlevel) and 7426 (DT1) following the initial volatility. Note how the past three sessions have remained largely unchanged since reaching the composite high volume node (HVN) (90D VPOC), signaling the development of short-term balance. The short-term value (5D VPOC) shifted lower from 7546 to 7447, which is bearish in the context of Thursday’s true gap lower.
In the Weekly Plan, an HTF level for NQ was highlighted at 27930 as a level of interest. Today’s session printed a low of 27939, from which a solid reversal unfolded. This level also closely aligns with the 10% correction level at 27872, an inflection point worth monitoring during corrections.
Session Recap
Today’s session saw responsive sellers step in within last week’s gap area, retracing the overnight gains. In the process, value was established largely unchanged relative to Thursday’s and Friday’s sessions.
Acceptance of lower prices suggests that this remains a bearish consolidation until proven otherwise, within the context of Thursday’s true gap down, which remains unfilled (7525.25).
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7485 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below today’s VAL at 7425 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7458, Friday’s Initial Balance high, coinciding with today’s FS VWAP. Holding below 7458 maintains downside pressure, targeting Today’s VAL at 7425 (DT1). Acceptance below 7425 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7403 (DT2), with 7362 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7458 shifts focus to 7485 (UT1), with the unfilled gap at 7525 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7458.
Break and hold above 7458 would target 7485 / 7525
Holding below 7458 would target 7425 / 7403 / 7362
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.72 and 17.62 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7525 with VIX below 17.62 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7362 with VIX above 19.72 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Great job
You are the goat
7580📉7520
NQ level was a banger! Thanks as always.