ES Daily Plan | July 28, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | July 28 - August 1, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Thursday’s consolidation at higher prices following Wednesday’s directional move was considered bullish until proven otherwise. This was confirmed by a continuation higher on Friday, forming a double distribution profile. The upside targets at 6430 (UT2) and 6450 (FUT) were highlighted in Friday’s plan as areas with potential for selling activity. A poor high formed at 6430, which led to a pullback into the closing session. The short-term value (5D VPOC) shifted higher from 6335 to 6406, which is bullish in the context of last week’s break from balance—value continues to follow price.
As discussed in the Weekly Plan, immediate attention is on Friday’s double distribution trend day for early clues of strength or weakness. The distributions are separated by single prints from the F-period. Sellers aim to reject Friday’s trend day by returning into its lower distribution—potentially opening the door to short-term weakness. Failure to do so would keep buyers firmly in control.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6416—the upper end of Friday’s lower distribution. Holding above 6416 would target the poor high at 6431 (UT1). Acceptance above 6431 would signal strength, targeting 6450 (UT2), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6470 under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 6416 would target 6394 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6374 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6416.
Holding above 6416 would target 6431 / 6450 / 6470
Break and hold below 6416 would target 6394 / 6374
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.68 and 14.18. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6470 with VIX below 14.18 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6374 with VIX above 15.68 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks!
Thank you! Nice gap up