ES Daily Plan | July 27, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Friday kicked off with responsive buyers, partially filling Thursday’s gap before running into passive sellers. Aggressive buyers lacked the size needed to push through the passive liquidity, resulting in a reversal and a close at session lows (see Figure 1). The downside momentum has currently stalled at an area of prior balance, marked by the 90D VPOC, which we use as a reference for long-term value.
Session Recap
The auction has established a 2-day balance, which is now of short-term interest. The key question is whether sellers can continue to accept lower prices following Thursday’s gap lower and maintain downside pressure.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7485 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7426 (DT1), Thursday’s VAL, where notable aggressive selling activity was absorbed.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7458, Friday’s Initial Balance high, coinciding with the FS VWAP. Holding below 7458 maintains downside pressure, targeting Thursday’s VAL at 7426 (DT1). Acceptance below 7426 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7403 (DT2), with 7362 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7458 shifts focus to 7485 (UT1), with the unfilled gap at 7525 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7458.
Break and hold above 7458 would target 7485 / 7525
Holding below 7458 would target 7426 / 7403 / 7362
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.64 and 17.52 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7525 with VIX below 17.52 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7362 with VIX above 19.64 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Have a great session, thanks for everything Smash
Thanks Smash! Let's get it!