ES Daily Plan | July 24, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Following both Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s sessions, notable order flow activity was observed around the 7548 level, within Thursday range from last week. Aggressive buyers were consistently absorbed by passive sellers. Absorption alone does not necessarily imply a reversal, but seeing it repeatedly at a key area that buyers needed to reclaim to negate last week’s shift in tone was meaningful market-generated information. Overnight, 7548 (Smashlevel) was tested and rejected early, marking the high of today’s notably weak session. During the European session, the auction built value below 7530 (DT1), signaling intraday weakness, while the VIX held above its resistance level at 17.52, adding bearish confluence. The final downside target at 7485 (FDT) was tagged and exceeded ahead of the RTH session.
The overnight weakness led the RTH session to open on a true gap down, 30 handles below 7485 (FDT). When RTH opens above FUT, or below FDT, I typically take a defensive approach, meaning I’m cautious about chasing price. Regular readers know that a failure below the overnight low (ONL) is a solid fade setup when gapping lower, a sequence that often triggers an inventory correction. That setup ultimately played out today during A-period. It’s not necessarily something you have to trade, but at a minimum, it serves as a reason to avoid initiating shorts early in the session.
The best trade setup emerged during the A-period, following the retest of 7485 (FDT), with VIX holding well above its resistance. Contextually, failure to reclaim 7485, combined with an elevated VIX, would have maintained the potential for further weakness. Additionally, an inventory correction is not bullish unless acceptance is established back within the prior day’s range, which would negate the attempt to shift the tone initiated by sellers. Sellers stepped in at 7485, keeping this week’s inventory trapped and leading to another leg lower. In the process, the long-term value area (90D VPOC) was tagged, where downside momentum stalled.
Session Recap
The key 7548 level was tagged overnight, marking today’s high, after which notable weakness followed. The auction subsequently established a true gap lower, with sellers once again initiating a directional move. The key now is whether this move gains acceptance or is rejected. As always, levels provide the framework for gauging the state of the market.
The immediate level of interest for assessing directional conviction is today’s Afternoon Rally High (ARH) at 7478, which aligns closely with today’s VAH and FS VWAP.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7485 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7426 (DT1), today’s VAL, where notable aggressive selling activity was absorbed.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7457, today’s Afternoon Rally High (ARH). Holding below 7457 maintains downside pressure, targeting today’s VAL at 7426 (DT1). Acceptance below 7426 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7403 (DT2), with 7362 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7457 shifts focus to 7485 (UT1), with the unfilled gap at 7525 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7457.
Break and hold above 7457 would target 7485 / 7525
Holding below 7457 would target 7426 / 7403 / 7362
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.72 and 17.72 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7525 with VIX below 17.72 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7362 with VIX above 19.72 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.