ES Daily Plan | July 23, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The 7548 level was a key reference heading into the week and has continued to play a significant role in the auction throughout the week. It’s important for obvious reasons, as it marks the lower end of last week’s upper distribution. It was also interesting from a short-term perspective given Tuesday’s notable order flow activity around the level. Overnight, sellers stepped in at 7547, triggering a rotation lower. The auction consolidated between the key levels 7530 (DT1) and 7510 (DT2) heading into the RTH session.
The 7548 level was revisited during the Initial Balance, once again attracting selling activity within Thursday’s range. The subsequent pullback retested 7530 perfectly, where responsive buyers stepped in. Defending 7530 kept the path open for another attempt at 7548, which ultimately unfolded. During Tuesday’s session, we observed notable absorption around the 7548 level, and today, passive sellers continued to absorb aggressive buyers within Thursday’s range, resulting in another close below 7548. This is a tricky short-term environment, made even more challenging by the fact that both the 5D VPOC and 20D VPOC sit at 7546. Stay nimble.
Session Recap
From a contextual standpoint, not much has changed in the short term. Passive sellers continue to prevent acceptance back into Thursday’s range, while the auction continues to print higher highs and higher lows. Levels of interest remain unchanged.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7578 (UT1), Thursday’s VAL, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7530 (DT1), today’s halfback, trapping today’s buying effort in the process.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7548, Thursday’s low. Holding below 7548 maintains downside pressure, targeting 7530 (DT1). Acceptance below 7530 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7510 (DT2), with 7485 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7548 shifts focus to Thursday’s VAL at 7578 (UT1), with 7605 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7548.
Break and hold above 7548 would target 7578 / 7605
Holding below 7548 would target 7530 / 7510 / 7485
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.52 and 15.78 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7605 with VIX below 15.78 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7485 with VIX above 17.52 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you!
Thank you Smash!