ES Daily Plan | July 22, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Sellers made early attempts at downside continuation overnight by breaking below Monday’s lower distribution. Both attempts ultimately failed to break the multi-day balance low, instead triggering responsive buyers and a rotation higher. Sellers initially defended 7497 (Smashlevel), but once buyers reclaimed the level and negated the most bearish scenario, we got a great move toward 7530 (UT1), where sellers stepped in. 7530 proved to be a solid level, producing good reactions overnight (ON high: 7530.25) and early in RTH.
The upside was capped by 7530 almost to the tick during the A-period (7530.25), with VIX simultaneously testing its support level at 17.58, providing great confluence. If we have to nitpick, the ideal scenario would have been a stronger probe above 7530 before reversing, rather than simply tagging the overnight high to the tick. As outlined in the plan, reclaiming 7530 was bullish intraday, and once buyers gained traction above the level, it opened the door to a revisit of 7548 (FUT). It was interesting to observe how the VIX lost its support level at 17.58 before buyers triggered continuation above 7530. The 7548 level capped today’s upside, which should come as no surprise since it’s a crucial short-term inflection point.
Keep in mind that reclaiming a level and shifting the “intraday state” to bullish does not mean buyers have regained control of the auction overall. It simply means the door is open to bullish continuation intraday. Contextually, buyers still need to reclaim 7548 to negate Friday’s shift in tone (see Figure 1), so these concepts should not be conflated.
Session Recap
Monday’s double distribution trend day was rejected today, triggering a rotation back toward last week’s gap area.
While buyers were in firm control of today’s auction, acceptance back above 7548, where notable buying effort was observed today, is still required to negate Friday’s shift in tone, which has yet to be achieved.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7578 (UT1), Thursday’s VAL, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7530 (DT1), today’s halfback, trapping today’s buying effort in the process.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7548, Thursday’s low. Holding below 7548 maintains downside pressure, targeting 7530 (DT1). Acceptance below 7530 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7510 (DT2), with 7485 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7548 shifts focus to Thursday’s VAL at 7578 (UT1), with 7605 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7548.
Break and hold above 7548 would target 7578 / 7605
Holding below 7548 would target 7530 / 7510 / 7485
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.02 and 16.08 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7605 with VIX below 16.08 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7485 with VIX above 18.02 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash!
Thanks Smash! Great levels today, I managed to catch the pre-market short from 7530, then got wrapped up in CL during RTH.