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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | July 21-25, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
A brief recap of Friday’s session was posted on Substack (link), reviewing how the price action unfolded around the key levels outlined in the plan.
Thursday’s triple distribution trend day to the upside was followed by a b-shaped double distribution trend day to the downside on Friday, characterized by long liquidation. Responsive buyers emerged at the upper end of Thursday’s lower distribution, where a poor low formed—marking a key short-term reference.
As discussed in the Weekly Plan: a strong market would either ignore Friday’s poor low altogether or show little interest in Thursday’s lower distribution if that area is revisited. Acceptance below 6323, however, would open the door to a return to value at 6304, which must hold—otherwise, the downside risk increases for a test of the opposite end of the weekly balance range.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6323—Friday’s poor low, which coincides with the upper end of Thursday’s lower distribution. Holding above 6323 would target a cleanup of Friday’s poor structure toward 6343 (UT1). Acceptance above 6343 would signal strength, targeting the overnight ATH at 6357 (UT2), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6375 under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold above 6323 would target the HVN at 6304 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6298 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6323.
Holding above 6323 would target 6343 / 6357 / 6375
Break and hold below 6323 would target 6304 / 6289
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.28 and 15.54. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6375 with VIX below 15.54 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6289 with VIX above 17.28 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you very much!