ES Daily Plan | July 20, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Heading into Friday, the auction had developed a 12-day balance area, within which a 5-day balance had formed. On Friday, a breakdown from the 5-day balance was initiated overnight, triggering a test of the lower end of the larger balance, where responsive buyers stepped in (see Figure 1).
Session Recap
Sellers are attempting to shift the short-term tone following Friday’s true gap lower by moving the auction away from the HVN at 7590, which has represented fair value over the past three weeks. The key now is to monitor whether downside continuation develops or fails to materialize.
Unchanged or lower value would be a bearish development, while failure to maintain acceptance below Friday’s gap area would signal strength.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7512 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7460 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7485, Friday’s opening level and also a low volume node (LVN) within this multi-week balance area. Holding above 7485 targets Friday’s FS VWAP at 7512 (UT1). Acceptance above 7512 would signal intraday strength, targeting the unfilled gap at 7548 (UT2), with 7578 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7485 shifts focus to the 6/29 VAL at 7460 (DT1), with the HVN at 7420 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7485.
Holding above 7485 would target 7512 / 7548 / 7578
Break and hold below 7485 would target 7460 / 7420
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 19.86 and 17.68 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7578 with VIX below 17.68 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7420 with VIX above 19.86 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Very insightful
Appreciate your time
Thank you!