ES Daily Plan | July 17, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
A breakout attempt from the multi-day balance was in play and materialized overnight as buyers initiated price discovery above 7626 (UT1). However, the move failed to gain acceptance, resulting in a Look Above and Fail (LAAF). The lack of initiative buying at the balance highs attracted responsive sellers, and weakness followed, which is to be expected when a move from balance fails.
The RTH session opened within last week’s value area, and 7578 (DT1) was tested and defended early on following a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of both 7578 and the overnight low at 7580.50. The VIX provided strong confluence during this sequence, testing its resistance level at 16.48. Buyers then tried to regain acceptance above the crucial 7605 level, but notable aggressive buying was absorbed by passive sellers around 7612 (see Figure 1). This absorption sequence was particularly interesting given the overnight session’s failed breakout attempt. The failure to move price higher despite notable buying effort ultimately fueled downside continuation, with all downside targets cleared down to 7556 (FDT), where buyers stepped in. Monday’s poor low was cleaned up in the process.
Session Recap
Responsive two-sided trade continues to define the auction following the failed breakout attempt overnight. While the daily timeframe has established a 12-day balance area, a 5-day balance has developed inside the larger balance.
In the short term, I will monitor the ability of buyers to regain acceptance within today’s value area. Failure to do so would suggest continued downside pressure, while keeping in mind that the auction remains in balance.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7605 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7556 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7578, today’s morning support and closing resistance. Holding below 7578 maintains downside pressure, targeting 7556 (DT1). Acceptance below 7556 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7532 (DT2), with 7515 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7578 shifts focus to last week’s VAH at 7605 (UT1). Acceptance above 7605 would signal intraday strength, targeting the poor high at 7626 (UT2), with 7648 (FUT), the non-back-adjusted ATH, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7578.
Holding above 7578 would target 7605 / 7626 / 7648
Break and hold below 7578 would target 7556 / 7532 / 7515
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.58 and 15.86 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7648 with VIX below 15.86 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7515 with VIX above 17.58 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
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