ES Daily Plan | July 16, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Quick Update: Price rotated around last week’s VAH at 7605 (UT1) throughout most of the overnight session, making for a rather uneventful overnight trade. However, this was a bullish development, as value was established above both Monday’s and Tuesday’s value areas.
Trading activity during the RTH session was also rather lackluster, initially holding between the key levels of 7605 (UT1) and 7625 (UT2). The auction formed a poor high during the Initial Balance at the multi-day balance high, which led to a counter-auction lower. The weakness that followed opened the door to the best opportunity of the day, when 7576 (Smashlevel) was tested in the F and G-periods, finding responsive buyers. As we’ve discussed, a meaningful change in tone requires acceptance outside of last week’s value area between 7605 and 7532. Today’s session essentially built value above 7605, so it remains to be seen whether a proper breakout attempt is on deck.
Session Recap
Today’s session established value above last week’s VAH at 7605, located at the upper end of the current multi-day balance area, after quickly rejecting the dip during the F and G-periods.
Nothing has changed contextually: building value above 7605 is a sign of strength, opening the door to a breakout attempt and effectively completing today’s bullish imbalance in the process. Rejection of today’s value suggests the auction is not yet ready for a directional move.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7626 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7578 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7605, last week’s VAH. Holding above 7605 signals stability and targets the poor high at 7626 (UT1). Acceptance above 7626 would signal intraday strength, targeting the non-back-adjusted ATH at 7648 (UT2), with 7664 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7605 shifts focus to 7578 (DT1), with 7556 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7605.
Holding above 7605 would target 7626 / 7648 / 7664
Break and hold below 7605 would target 7578 / 7556
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.48 and 14.86 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7664 with VIX below 14.86 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7556 with VIX above 16.48 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash, have a great session
Great work thank you
You’re very helpful