ES Daily Plan | July 15, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Overnight, the auction came down and tested last week’s VAL at 7532 (DT1), where buyers stepped in responsively. Despite exploring below Monday’s and Friday’s lows, the overnight VPOC developed above 7551 (Smashlevel), at 7557. Last week’s VAH at 7605, a level highlighted in the Weekly Plan, was revisited following the CPI release, where sellers stepped in.
The upside was capped by the 7605 level in the RTH session, while sellers were unable to explore below Monday’s and Friday’s lows, unlike during the overnight session, making the RTH session rather uneventful. Notably, every test of the VIX support level at 16.32 was met with selling pressure in ES. Overall, today’s session had a bullish tone, as value was established above the Weekly VWAP at 7582 and above 7579 (UT1). The inability of sellers to generate downside follow-through after Friday’s Look Above and Fail (LAAF) signaled a lack of selling conviction. The market did see a traverse of last week’s value area overnight, but that was essentially it.
Session Recap
Today’s session established an inside day, suggesting that not much has changed from a contextual standpoint. The auction remains in balance, now forming a 10-day balance area while awaiting further market-generated information. PPI is on deck tomorrow.
A meaningful change in tone requires acceptance outside of last week’s value area, which also represents the value area of the current multi-day balance, between 7605 and 7532. This has yet to occur.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7605 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7556 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7576, today’s VAL. Holding above 7576 signals stability and targets 7605 (UT1). Acceptance above 7605 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7625 (UT2), with 7648 (FUT), the non-back-adjusted ATH, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7576 shifts focus to today’s inside-day low at 7556 (DT1), with 7532 (FDT), last week’s VAL, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7576.
Holding above 7576 would target 7605 / 7625 / 7648
Break and hold below 7576 would target 7556 / 7532
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.32 and 15.68 These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7648 with VIX below 15.68 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7532 with VIX above 17.32 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash!