ES Daily Plan | July 15, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | July 14-18, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The overnight session gapped lower, opening entirely outside of Friday’s range. The crucial 6271 level was immediately tested, where the market established a distribution—highlighting its significance. Sellers attempted to push lower, but the move was quickly reversed following the European open. The reclaim of 6271 after this sequence led to a test of the Smashlevel at 6290 ahead of the RTH open.
The RTH session mirrored the overnight session, with early attempts to push lower failing to gain traction—specifically, below 6290. The VIX held above its resistance level of 17.32 overnight but dropped back below it during the RTH session—a positive development for buyers. It was an overall quiet session, with the market grinding higher and ultimately tagging the initial upside target at 6310, which effectively capped today’s upside. Notably, both short-term value (5D VPOC) and medium-term value (20D VPOC) have aligned within the current 7-day balance area (6304), suggesting the market is coiling for a directional move.
The context remains unchanged, with the market currently within a 7-day balance area, awaiting further market-generated information to guide its next move. As always, the longer the consolidation, the more significant the breakout tends to be.
Buyers aim to build value within the highlighted green box, opening the door for a breakout attempt, while the most favorable scenario for sellers would involve acceptance within the red box—an area they have thus far struggled to hold—potentially opening the door for an attack on last week’s low. CPI on deck tomorrow!
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6314—today’s value resistance. Holding below 6314 would target today’s value support at 6295 (DT1). Acceptance below 6295 would signal weakness, targeting high volume node (HVN) at 6271 (DT2), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6246—the lower end of the 6-day balance area—under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6314 would target the upper end of the current 6-day balance at 6333 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6355 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6314.
Break and holdabove 6314 would target 6333 / 6355
Holding below 6314 would target 6295 / 6271 / 6246
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.14 and 16.24. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6355 with VIX below 16.24 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6246 with VIX above 18.14 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you!