ES Daily Plan | July 10, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
As discussed, Wednesday’s session explored prices below last week’s VAL at 7497 following a true gap down, but sellers failed to gain meaningful traction. As a result, a reversal unfolded, filling the gap and suggesting a lack of stronger sellers. Overnight, buyers defended the lower end of Wednesday’s afternoon consolidation at 7515 (Smashlevel), indicating that new buyers were willing to support the market following Wednesday’s short-covering reversal. Buyers reclaimed 7534 (UT1) and built value above it ahead of the RTH open.
The RTH session opened on a true gap up, making Wednesday’s RTH high, which aligned with the 7534 level, a key area for buyers to defend. Failure to hold this area would negate the shift in tone created by the auction opening outside of the prior day’s range. The gap was filled in the A-period, after which aggressive sellers were absorbed by passive buyers, resulting in a reversal (see Figure 1). Order flow showed aggressive selling effort failing to produce downside continuation into an area of interest, providing an opportunity to fade the sellers and align with the direction of the true gap up.
It was crucial for buyers that the auction did not find acceptance back within the prior day’s range. When 7534 was revisited in the B-period, sellers had an opportunity to shift control. This attempt failed, and instead a poor low formed, which became the RTH low. The auction completed the move to all upside targets, reaching 7578 (FUT), and with VIX dropping below its support at 16.10, the auction continued to grind higher.
Session Recap
Today’s session developed into a double distribution trend day, leaving behind single prints in the D-period, following Wednesday’s failure to gain acceptance below last week’s value area. The auction has returned to Monday’s value, located at the upper end of the current 7-day balance area.
Keep it simple: continued value building above last week’s VAH at 7578 sets the stage for a breakout attempt, while a failure to see initiative activity will rotate the auction back to value.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7605 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7556 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7578, last week’s VAH. Holding above 7578 signals stability and targets 7605 (UT1). Acceptance above 7605 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7632 (UT2), with 7648 (FUT), the non-back-adjusted ATH, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, a failure to hold 7578 shifts focus to the HVN at 7556 (DT1), with 7534 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7578.
Holding above 7578 would target 7605 / 7632 / 7648
Break and hold below 7578 would target 7556 / 7534
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.64 and 15.04. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7648 with VIX below 15.04 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7534 with VIX above 16.64 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you as always!