ES Daily Plan | July 1, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Quick update as I’m leaving the desk early today. Overnight saw a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) of 7490 (Smashlevel), which marked the low of the day. The failure of sellers to gain traction below 7490 was a bullish development, especially following Monday’s close above last week’s value area.
The RTH session kicked off with initiative buying right out of the gate, effectively filling last week’s gap at 7527.75 (UT1) in the process. As discussed in the Weekly Plan, a gap-fill reversal—or lack thereof—will determine the next move. Upside momentum stalled following the gap fill but only briefly before a continuation higher unfolded. The final upside target at 7560 (FUT), also the Weekly Extreme High, was tagged during the K-period, with buyers ultimately struggling to gain traction above it.
Smashlevels Recap
Monday’s closing strength above last week’s value area extended into today’s session, resulting in upside continuation, a double distribution profile, and effectively filling last week’s gap.
Buyers are in short-term control of the auction after breaking out of the multi-day balance area, and only acceptance back within Monday’s value area would shift that momentum.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7560 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7515 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7534, the Initial Balance High. Holding above 7534 signals stability and targets the Weekly Extreme High at 7560 (UT1). Acceptance above 7560 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7581 (UT2), with 7613 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7534 shifts focus to the excess base at 7515 (DT1), with 7490 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7534.
Holding above 7534 would target 7560 / 7581 / 7613
Break and hold below 7534 would target 7515 / 7490
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.28 and 15.64. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7613 with VIX below 15.64 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7490 with VIX above 17.28 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you, Smash!
I know you have those two key structural levels defined at 7534 and 7515. I would add one right in between them: Tuesday's TPO Value Area Low (VAL). If sellers manage to gain acceptance below this area and your levels, they will have a highly opportunistic chance to attack Tuesday’s low and force the daily structure right back into a balance area.
I absolutely love how detailed and deep your analyses are. As always, I digest them as a core part of my daily market input. Anyone who isn't signed up for your publications is truly missing out on a phenomenal piece of market context.
Thanks again, Smash!
Taking notes and learning new things every day. Thank you Smash!