ES Daily Plan | July 1, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | June 30 - July 4 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The overnight session saw immediate price exploration above last week’s high, as the market tested the resistance area between 6240 and 6250. After a few attempts above 6250, it returned below that level ahead of the RTH open, which was set to open with another true gap up.
The RTH session, which opened within the 6240–6250 resistance zone, found sellers early, resulting in a quick gap-fill. Following this, price action turned extremely choppy, with the market forming a distribution around last week’s high as sellers continued to defend the 6240–6250 area. Change took place in the I-period, when the market experienced a liquidation break. Unfortunately, the drop failed to reach the 6214 level before responsive buyers stepped in (LOD: 6224.25)—a level that could have offered a solid opportunity for a reversal.
The month and quarter closed with a squeeze, forming an M-period spike—a key short-term reference, as excess often signals the end of one auction and the potential beginning of another. Sellers aim to find acceptance back within last week’s range—ideally leaving the excess high intact—with the primary objective of ending the daily one-time framing up. Failure to do so keeps buyers in firm control, as they seek to negate today’s excess high.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6256—the M-period spike base. Holding below 6256 would target last week’s high at 6239 (DT1). Acceptance below 6239 signals weakness, targeting 6214 (DT2), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6198 under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6256 signals strength, targeting 6280 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6300 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6256.
Break and hold above 6256 would target 6280 / 6300
Holding below 6256 would target 6239 / 6214 / 6198
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.58 and 15.86. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6300 with VIX below 15.86 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6198 with VIX above 17.58 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash!
Thank you Lito!