ES Daily Plan | January 9-10, 2025
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
NOTE: In observance of the National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter on January 9, trading hours will be adjusted. U.S. equity markets will close early at 8:30 a.m. CT, while trading for all CME Globex products will resume at the regularly scheduled time of 5:00 p.m. CT later that day.
Quick update today, as the context remains unchanged following the session. Trading activity remained largely confined within Tuesday’s lower distribution, which is bearish in the context of Tuesday’s triple distribution trend day to the downside, with value clearly established lower. Buyers attempted to gain traction within Tuesday’s middle distribution but failed to sustain momentum above the initial upside target at 5965, a level discussed in the Weekly Plan. Meanwhile, sellers' attempt at continuation lower was capped at the initial downside target of 5920. Both the short-term value (5D) and medium-term value (20D) shifted lower today and are situated within today’s range, making breaks outside of today’s range crucial to monitor in either direction, as directional moves are often initiated from high volume nodes.
Sellers maintain short-term control after today’s session, during which the market established value within Tuesday’s lower distribution. A weak market will continue to hold within the lower distribution, maintaining downside pressure and favoring a continuation to the downside, while acceptance back within the middle distribution would open the door to traversing that distribution.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5965. Holding below this level would target today’s VAL at 5936. Acceptance below 5936 signals weakness, targeting 5920, with a final target at 5900 under sustained selling pressure. Conversely, failure to hold below 5965 would target Tuesday’s afternoon rally high at 5990, with a final target at 6009 under sustained buying pressure, effectively completing a full traverse of Tuesday’s middle distribution.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5965.
Break and hold above 5965 would target 5990 / 6009
Holding below 5965 would target 5936 / 5920 / 5900
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.76 and 16.64. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6009 with VIX below 16.64 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5900 with VIX above 18.76 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Superb plan like always, brother. Two-sided activity today (5920 and 5965 tagged) in both directions. However, a lot of abuse around smashlevel early on - typical action when the market awaits additional generated info.
Thanks Smash!