ES Daily Plan | January 5, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
On Friday, the auction retraced a significant portion of Wednesday’s decline overnight; however, the RTH session remained under continued downside pressure, ultimately extending the pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the daily time frame. The downside momentum stalled at DT1 (6870), from which an afternoon rally unfolded.
As discussed in the Weekly prep, Friday’s afternoon rally high at 6909 will be key in the short term. Note how this level aligns closely with Thursday’s single prints, as well as the low from December 22nd. Building value below this level would maintain downside pressure, following last week’s failed breakout. Reclaiming 6909, on the other hand, could lead to a revisit of last week’s most traded price by volume at 6952.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6909—Friday’s afternoon rally high. Holding below 6909 would signal weakness, targeting 6872 (DT1), with a final downside target at 6845 (FDT)—the weekly NVPOC—under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6909 would target 6932 (UT1), where heavy aggressive selling was initiated on Friday, with a final upside target at 6952 (FUT)—the prior ATH—under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6909.
Break and hold above 6909 would target 6932 / 6952
Holding below 6909 would target 6872 / 6845
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.22 and 13.80. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6952 with VIX below 13.80 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6845 with VIX above 15.22 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Have a great week, thank you for everything you do
Thank you as always!