ES Daily Plan | January 30, 2025

My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.

Jan 29, 2025

For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.

Visual Representation

Contextual Analysis

Buyers attempted to reclaim the Smashlevel (intraday pivot) at 6102 during the overnight session, but the effort ultimately failed, leading to a quick drop to the initial downside target at 6084. The 6084 level, marked as “intraday bearish below,” proved to be a pivotal level today and will serve as the Smashlevel for tomorrow for that reason.

The RTH session, which opened within Tuesday’s range and value, was essentially a battle for 6084 during the first hour, referred to as the initial balance. Sellers began to gain control of 6084 during the C period and onwards, setting the stage for a trend in favor of sellers ahead of the FOMC meeting. We've seen several liquidation breaks emerge out of nowhere in recent sessions, and the H-period experienced just that. The drop tested the highlighted support area between 6053 and the final intraday downside target at 6043, where buyers quickly stepped in. Notably, this support capped today's downside, with the LOD printing at 6042.25. The key for downside pressure will be for sellers to break this support going forward. Thus far, the market is in no man's land, with Monday's gap remaining unfilled, but value being established above Monday’s value. The question is whether the short-term value (5D VPOC) will shift lower or if the price will return to the island top. The market demonstrated its typical volatility during the FOMC meeting; however, serious day traders go flat beforehand, leaving the price discovery process to the less experienced.

The past two sessions have clearly rejected Monday’s value, but with the gap at 6122 still unfilled, the market is left in a tricky position. A strong market will establish acceptance above 6102, aiming to fill the gap and return within the 3-day range, while a weak market will gain traction below 6043, opening the door for a retest of Monday’s value support. GDP and Jobless Claims are on deck tomorrow, with APPL earnings after the close.

In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6084. Holding below this level would target the support area between 6053 and 6043, with a final target at 6015 under sustained selling pressure. Conversely, failure to hold below 6084 would target 6102, with a final target at 6122 under sustained buying pressure, effectively filling the gap.

Levels of Interest

Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 6084.

Break and hold above 6084 would target 6102 / 6122
Holding below 6084 would target 6053 / 6043 / 6015

Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.52 and 15.58. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.

Break and hold above 6122 with VIX below 15.58 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6015 with VIX above 17.52 would confirm weakness.

Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.