Today’s session witnessed a breakout from the short-term balance area, effectively resolving the non-excess and printing a new all-time high in the process, which is also characterized as poor.
It's important to emphasize once again that while the ES/VIX concept serves as a powerful tool in my arsenal, as demonstrated repeatedly in this newsletter, it should be incorporated alongside your own strategies rather than solely leaned upon. While this concept itself isn't the primary trigger for initiating trades, it provides valuable piece of information, regardless of whether its correlation is positive or negative.
In an environment where both spot and volatility are on the rise, it signals that traders are anticipating increased volatility. This anticipation is unsurprising, given the significant data releases and events scheduled for this week. However, it's important to note that increased volatility doesn't necessarily predict the direction of the market. While a positive correlation printing new all-time highs is definitely not a sufficient reason to initiate a swing trade on the short side (!), I'm a cautious chaser as I find initiating swing trades on the long side unattractive. Navigating the current conditions day-by-day will definitely help traders maintain a healthy sleep schedule.
It's not a glitch. I have commented on this substack before about the dangers of using VIX in the way it is commonly (mis)used, which is, "market up, VIX down" and vice versa. Excessive call buying can lead to increases in VIX as the market rises. VIX is a constantly moving target since it measures at the money options. Misuse it at your own peril... If it is correlating as you expect, it may be useful, but it is silly to use it as a correlated indicator of equity strength or weakness all the time.
Levels on point
Would be perfect if market could tag 4960 to form an excess at the same time resolving that poor high😭
Great action today. What was with the $VIX this morning. Through 15 and back. Was that a glitch. About same time /es was closing in on first hour
It's important to emphasize once again that while the ES/VIX concept serves as a powerful tool in my arsenal, as demonstrated repeatedly in this newsletter, it should be incorporated alongside your own strategies rather than solely leaned upon. While this concept itself isn't the primary trigger for initiating trades, it provides valuable piece of information, regardless of whether its correlation is positive or negative.
In an environment where both spot and volatility are on the rise, it signals that traders are anticipating increased volatility. This anticipation is unsurprising, given the significant data releases and events scheduled for this week. However, it's important to note that increased volatility doesn't necessarily predict the direction of the market. While a positive correlation printing new all-time highs is definitely not a sufficient reason to initiate a swing trade on the short side (!), I'm a cautious chaser as I find initiating swing trades on the long side unattractive. Navigating the current conditions day-by-day will definitely help traders maintain a healthy sleep schedule.
I love using your ES/VIX concept! More often than not, it keeps me out of trouble.
It's not a glitch. I have commented on this substack before about the dangers of using VIX in the way it is commonly (mis)used, which is, "market up, VIX down" and vice versa. Excessive call buying can lead to increases in VIX as the market rises. VIX is a constantly moving target since it measures at the money options. Misuse it at your own peril... If it is correlating as you expect, it may be useful, but it is silly to use it as a correlated indicator of equity strength or weakness all the time.
Thanks for the reply Josh. I keep it in front of me alongside the indices I follow.
What an incredible trading day, big bucks were made today. Thank you, buddy!
Awesome!!!
Do you happen to have any educational resources on AMT and order flow?