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axisofadvance's avatar

Thank you for this, as always. Quick question: have you touched on how the relevant VIX levels are derived, relative to levels of interest, in a prior post? Would love to have more insights into how you're assessing implied vol vs. market profile. Thanks in advance!

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Jan 23, 2023
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Smashelito's avatar

I primarily focus on the orderflow/price action. Specifically, I look for instances where buying effort fails to move price higher, followed by aggressive sell activity.

The lack of confirmation from VIX, similar to Friday's session, suggests that caution should be exercised when initiating new longs, especially for me as today marks the second consecutive trend day.

4031 is basically the top of the prior 5 day balance, which means I would like to see a failure back below and return to the balance area before considering any counter-trend trades (except for pure scalps). We actually had plenty of aggressive selling today above 4031, but all that selling effort was absorbed by passive buyers. Observe the price action above 4031. There were two clear instances of liquidation breaks, indicating that late long at poor locations were being stopped out.

At the moment, another liquidation break is taking place as I write this, but it's difficult to be a seller before any support areas are breached. This is why I typically avoid engaging much outside of the yellow levels, as it is challenging for both buyers and sellers.