4 Comments

So far today we have VIX divergence with price above 4031. I am looking for a potential reversal as we continue to hold above. Is there anything else you look at for confirmation in these scenarios?

Expand full comment

I primarily focus on the orderflow/price action. Specifically, I look for instances where buying effort fails to move price higher, followed by aggressive sell activity.

The lack of confirmation from VIX, similar to Friday's session, suggests that caution should be exercised when initiating new longs, especially for me as today marks the second consecutive trend day.

4031 is basically the top of the prior 5 day balance, which means I would like to see a failure back below and return to the balance area before considering any counter-trend trades (except for pure scalps). We actually had plenty of aggressive selling today above 4031, but all that selling effort was absorbed by passive buyers. Observe the price action above 4031. There were two clear instances of liquidation breaks, indicating that late long at poor locations were being stopped out.

At the moment, another liquidation break is taking place as I write this, but it's difficult to be a seller before any support areas are breached. This is why I typically avoid engaging much outside of the yellow levels, as it is challenging for both buyers and sellers.

Expand full comment

Thanks for that additional context. I've been incorporating your VIX levels into my daily plans and they have kept me out of trouble, especially the last few days, but that divergence today was a bit stronger than friday's and it had me wanting to fade the move.

I was able to catch that last liquidation break for a nice scalp, which I closed as soon as the vix looked to be hitting resistance right near that 4018 level.

Again, thanks for all you provide here. I have learned a ton just from reading the daily plans. The recap of the previous action really helps me put things into perspective that I might not have understood during the day.

Expand full comment

Thank you for this, as always. Quick question: have you touched on how the relevant VIX levels are derived, relative to levels of interest, in a prior post? Would love to have more insights into how you're assessing implied vol vs. market profile. Thanks in advance!

Expand full comment