ES Daily Plan | January 17, 2025
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Keeping it brief today, as the session was relatively uneventful. The final target for the week, outlined in the Weekly Plan at 5990, was tagged yesterday, and upside momentum has since stalled. Additionally, it’s not uncommon for the market to have a balanced session following an emotional day like yesterday, which had a significant true gap higher.
The overnight session managed to hold above the 5990 level, leading to price exploration higher to test the initial upside target at 6009. However, buyers failed to sustain above 6009, offering a solid short setup for a move back to 5990 before the RTH session opened. While trading activity below 5990 was limited overnight, the RTH session struggled to gain meaningful traction above it. Unfortunately, the initial downside target at 5965 was not reached until after-hours trading, resulting in a small bounce.
In every plan, I mark levels as "Intraday Bullish" (6009) and "Intraday Bearish" (5965), respectively. My thought process around these levels is that failed attempts to break them can offer good reversal setups. If the prevailing trend is to the upside, the intraday bearish levels are of more interest for setups (longs), while the opposite holds true for intraday bullish levels during a prevailing downtrend—favoring trades in the direction of the overall trend.
Today’s session established value overlapping to higher, which is bullish in the context of yesterday’s breakout from balance. The market is currently accepting higher prices. The overall context remains unchanged: Acceptance above 5990 targets the highlighted poor structure from January 7th; while traction below 5965 could open the door for technical fills toward Wednesday’s gap.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5990. Holding below this level would target 5965 (in process), with a final target at 5935 under sustained selling pressure. Conversely, failure to hold below 5990 would target 6009, with a final target at 6029 under sustained buying pressure, completing the cleanup of the poor structure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5990.
Break and hold above 5990 would target 6009 / 6029
Holding below 5990 would target 5965 / 5935
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.62 and 15.58. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6029 with VIX below 15.58 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5935 with VIX above 17.62 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thanks! Great stuff as always.
Thanks Smash! Good reversal from 5965 so far!