ES Daily Plan | February 7, 2025
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
The overnight session saw an immediate continuation higher, exploring prices above Wednesday’s range. During the European session, the market pulled back to test Wednesday’s spike area, where buying activity emerged. The upper end of Friday’s lower distribution acted as resistance throughout the session.
The RTH session opened with a true gap up but remained relatively quiet after establishing a very narrow initial balance range. As often discussed, two crucial references when gapping higher are the opening level and the overnight high. Buyers struggled to gain traction above the opening level, while sellers, after filling the gap, also failed to gain traction within Wednesday’s range. This made the RTH session fairly lackluster in terms of trade opportunities, except for the gap-fill in the C-period, which tested the Smashlevel at 6085 (6085.25) and provided a bounce. The market formed a perfectly balanced profile up until the K-period, when a sharp liquidation break occurred, stopping out traders who had been battling for hours. This drop traversed Wednesday’s upper distribution; however, the 6067 level remained intact—a key level buyers needed to hold to maintain directional conviction. Shortly thereafter, the market returned within today’s value, and a new intraday high was even printed in the closing session. The poor structure from last Friday was partially filled and remains a target. Value continues to follow price, as the short-term value (5D) shifted higher from 6086 to 6100.
Contextually, little has changed after today’s session, as the market continues grinding higher, partially filling last Friday’s poor structure. The closing session saw another upward spike, but after-hours trading pulled back into the value area. All eyes are on the reaction to NFP tomorrow.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel remains at 6085. Holding above this level signals strength, targeting Friday’s breakdown single prints at 6115, with a final target at the resistance area between 6137 and 6147 under sustained buying pressure. Conversely, failure to hold above 6085 would target the top of Wednesday’s single prints at 6067, with a final target at 6038 under sustained selling pressure—a crucial level for buyers to defend.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 6085.
Holding above 6085 would target 6115 / 6137 / 6147
Break and hold below 6085 would target 6067 / 6038
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.34 and 14.66. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6147 with VIX below 14.66 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6038 with VIX above 16.34 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thanks Smash!
Thank you Smash! Today was wacky.