ES Daily Plan | February 6, 2025
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Weakness emerged after-hours yesterday, and sellers followed through to the downside in the overnight session, essentially retracing Tuesday’s range before finding buyers at Tuesday’s opening level. However, after initially defending 6038 during the European session, sellers ultimately failed to hold below it, allowing the market to return within Tuesday’s value area before the RTH open.
The RTH session also experienced weakness early on, but trading activity below 6038 lasted only a few minutes before dip buyers stepped in—a classic look below and fail. The key level for buyers to reclaim was 6068, which the E-period successfully broke. After breaking 6068, the market consolidated above it for the next three periods. This sequence was a textbook example of reclaiming and accepting a level, as the market successfully migrated the VPOC higher from 6047 to 6071. In the H-period, there was a sneaky sweep below the consolidation area before the continuation higher unfolded. The VIX held its support at 16.16 during this consolidation but ultimately lost that support after the headfake in the H-period. The initial upside target at 6093 was not reached until the after-hours session (6092), as the market effectively traversed the 3-day composite value from last week.
The similarities to last week continue, with the market showing early weakness on Monday, followed by a grind higher, ultimately establishing its third consecutive double distribution profile of the week today. The primary focus remains on cleaning up the highlighted poor structure from Friday. Buyers maintain directional conviction above the 6067 level, with immediate attention on today’s spike base at 6085.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6085, marking today’s M-period spike base. Holding above this level signals strength, targeting Friday’s breakdown single prints at 6115, with a final target at the resistance area between 6137 and 6147 under sustained buying pressure. Conversely, failure to hold above 6085 would target the top of today’s single prints at 6067, with a final target at 6038 under sustained selling pressure—a crucial level for buyers to defend.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 6085.
Holding above 6085 would target 6115 / 6137 / 6147
Break and hold below 6085 would target 6067 / 6038
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.68 and 14.84. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6147 with VIX below 14.84 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6038 with VIX above 16.68 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
My thought process exactly shown in the add-on chart 🥹🥹🥹
Thank you!!