ES Daily Plan | February 25, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
There was no immediate downside continuation during the overnight session. Instead, the market quickly filled Friday’s J-period single prints, reclaiming the 6045 level in the process. This level proved to be pivotal throughout the session. Holding above it continued to target technical fills of Friday’s structure, which played out during the European session—testing and holding 6045 before subsequently filling the small set of single prints from Friday's H-period. Note that for the single prints to be considered officially cleaned up, this must occur during the RTH session. The market didn’t quite reach the resistance area (6072-82), which would have been a great location to watch for short setups given the lack of immediate downside continuation earlier in the overnight session.
The RTH session sold off immediately, breaking both 6045 and 6025 during the A-period before tagging the initial downside target of 6004 early in the B-period. The VIX spiked higher during this sequence, breaking its resistance level at 19.28. However, when sellers failed to hold below 6004, the VIX dropped back below 19.28. The short-covering bounce that followed failed to reclaim last week’s range above 6025, maintaining downside pressure. The second attempt to break and hold below 6004 also failed, which stood out due to a divergence with the VIX, which remained below its 19.28 resistance level.
Buyers gained traction above 6025 after the D-period ended the intraday one-time framing down, opening the door for another test of 6045. As mentioned, 6045 was pivotal and capped the upside during the afternoon session. The H-period was particularly interesting due to significant aggressive buying/passive selling. 6025 was tested again in the closing periods but ultimately failed to hold, resulting in a flush during the M-period (the last 30 minutes of RTH).
The pattern of lower highs and lower lows remains intact after today’s session, which partially filled Friday’s poor structure before sellers reloaded. Buyers' primary objective is to reclaim last week’s range; failure to do so sustains downside pressure and sets the stage for a revisit of February’s low.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5990, marking the upper end of the lower distribution from February 3rd. Holding above this level would target the resistance area between 6015 and 6025, with a final target at 6045 under sustained buying pressure. Conversely, failure to hold above 5990 would target 5967, with a final target at 5950 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5990.
Holding above 5990 would target 6015 / 6025 / 6045
Break and hold below 5990 would target 5967 / 5950
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.10 and 17.86. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6045 with VIX below 17.86 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5950 with VIX above 20.10 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thank you Smash! Great stuff!
Thank you very much!